Statistically speaking, 1995 was a good year for the Chicago Police Department (CPD). Major decreases in virtually every category of crime was recorded in the past year. The category most talked about, of course, was homicides. Unofficially, as the year grew to a close, Chicago had 810 murders in 1995. That number was down from 923 homicides recorded in 1994.
This downward trend in murders happened in almost every major United States city in the past year. The homicides in New York City dropped by almost one-third. FBI statistics indicated that murders in the U.S. were down by about 12 percent. Violent crime, as a whole, was said to be down by 5 percent in the first half of the year.
Police and crime experts are still trying to figure out the real reasons for this decrease in crime. There are several possible answers. Police say that among them could be Chicago's community policing project and more resources going toward direct street enforcement. Criminologists do agree that some credit should be given to the fine job that the CPD and other departments are doing -- but other reasons should also be considered. These include: an increase in the number of criminals that are being incarcerated for longer periods of time, changing demographics in a trend towards re-urbanization, and an apparent stabilization in the illegal drug market.
As of this moment, all of the official statistics are not in. But there has been a significant drop in the other areas of major crime in Chicago. As of the end of November, robberies were down by 11 percent. There was a 9 percent drop in auto theft. An 8 percent drop has been recorded in burglaries. Rape has decreased by 5 percent and assaults were down 2 percent. One other huge decrease was recorded in the number of carjackings. They were down a whopping 29 percent, according to CPD statistics.
Even Chicago's toughest and roughest areas saw a decline in crime in 1995. Most of the violent crime still occurs on the City's West and South Sides. Crime in areas like the 11th Police District, on the West Side, are still fueled by the same historic factors of street gang rivlary, drug abuse, poverty and unemployment.
The Chicago Police Department recorded a 24 percent drop in gang-related killings in the past year. Drug-related murders were said to be down 22 percent. The CPD says that they have been concentrating in these two areas of crime and that their efforts are now paying off.
One area of concern may be what is known as stranger-on-stranger homicides which are now becoming more common. And this particular type of crime may be the reason for rising public fear, even though crime statistics show that actual crime rates are down. Current statistics show that only 45 percent of murder victims actually knew their killers. During the 1960's, 71 percent of murder victims knew who their killers were. This statistic is also reflected by the drop in the number of homicides that the police now clear. Conventional methods of homicide investigation dictate that when looking for a murderer, you look at your victim's background and who he knew. In that way you are able to obtain leads toward your suspect. But when your victim does not know the suspect -- your investigation is much more difficult. Leads tend to dry up quicker.
One criminal expert that does not take on the rosy outlook toward recent statistics is Professor James Alan Fox at Northeastern University in Boston. Professor Fox notes that homicides and violent crime anongst adults has declined in the past few years -- violent crime among teenagers has soared.
Fox Said, "What you have in America is two crime trends moving in opposite directions, one for adults and one for juveniles." What Professor Fox says is true. The most recent available statistics show that the number of murders committed by offenders aged 21-years and older, in Chicago, went down from 461 in 1986 to 365 in 1994. While virtually at the same time, murders committed by offenders aged 20-years and younger, in Chicago, went up from 168 in 1985 to 448 in 1994.
Professor Fox said that the number of teenagers will increase by 23 percent during the next ten years in the United States, and that this new crop of teen criminals will most likely will cause a new wave of crime. Fox said, "If we spend too much time celebrating the 1995 statistics, we'll get blindsided by a new crime wave that will make 1995 look like the good old days."
Incarceration of more criminals, for longer periods of time, is another factor that must be seriously considered in the current decrease in major crime. There are more people than ever behind bars. The number of black criminals in prison vastly exceeded the number of white criminals in 1995, even though blacks make up only 13 percent of the population of the United States. The State of Texas corrections system is now larger than the federal prison system. There are more convicts behind prison walls in Texas, alone, than in any other country on this planet, except for Russia and China.
More prisons are being built in the United States. In fact, one could say that it is a booming industry. Judges are imposing stiffer prison sentences on criminals and in many instances, the judges, themselves, don't have a choice. The recent "three strikes and you're out" in which criminals who have been convicted three times for serious crimes and they are locked up for life -- is apparently taking its toll on "career" criminals. Barbara Price, the dean of graduate studies at the John Jay School of Criminal Justice in New York City, said, "If criminals are out of circulation, they can't commit more crimes."
Another reason for the decrease in crime that must be looked, according to criminologists, is a less-volatile drug market. In 1990, when crack cocaine was introduced in large quantity in Chicago, drug dealers and street gangs battled for sales turf. When that happened, the number of shootings and homicides went through the roof. During the 1980's, before the advent of crack cocaine, the City averaged about 700 homicides per year. During the early 1990's, Chicago was recording about 850 murders per year.
One crime expert has compared the current drug market situation to what happened in the 1920's when the infamous Al Capone and other mobsters fought for control of the illegal liquor market. During the battle for sales turf, during the 1920's, homicides increased. But once Capone finally gained control of the illegal booze trade, the number of homicides went down. That historic comparison appears to be just as relevant to this day.
Will the decrease in violent crime and homicide continue on a downward trend? According to many criminologists, they fear that what we are seeing is -- merely the calm before the storm.
(c) EmergencyNet News Service, 1995